THE FED AND THE FLU

The intersection of pandemics and economics across world history is explored in this nonfiction book.

A former soldier assigned to the United States Army’s 485th Preventative Medicine Unit, co-author Kotok notes in the book’s introduction that “disease has killed more soldiers throughout all wars than swords, arrows, bullets, and bombs have.” Following the example of United States generals from George Washington to Dwight Eisenhower, who emphasized the long-term threat of disease to national security, Kotok has spent decades studying the economic impact of pandemics throughout history. Inspired by a 2020 research study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (a document cited heavily throughout this work) in the wake of Covid-19, Kotok and his co-authors Englund, Erwin, and Sweet offer a timely, well-researched economic history of pandemics. Divided into five parts, the book begins with an assessment of the Federal Reserve’s response to Covid-19 before transitioning into a lengthier exploration of pandemics across history. The second section offers chapter-length historical overviews of seven pandemics, from the Bronze Age and Roman Antonine Plague through the Black Death of the Middle Ages. Part three transitions to the 20th century, with a particular emphasis on the Federal Reserve’s response to the influenza pandemics of 1918 and 1957. Parts four and five focus on Covid-19, providing readers with in-depth, data-driven analysis of the pandemic’s impact on labor, productivity, and other key economic measures. These sections also discuss the impact of stimulus assistance, which the authors suggest “cushioned the shock” to the economy while noting that the initial round of stimulus mostly tended to help larger businesses. “We are still seeing lingering impacts of the pandemic,” the authors assert from the vantage of 2025, highlighting Covid-19’s connection to inflation, the decline of small businesses, and impact on skilled workers.

While written by a team of economic scholars who emphasize the hard, quantitative data at the center of their research, the work highlights the human toll of the disease. Dedicated to both frontline healthcare professionals as well as Federal Reserve employees, the book reflects the humanistic belief that the economy exists to serve people—the authors observe that any “economy and its financial market function best when market agents are not sick and do not have disease risk on their minds.” This empathetic perspective, in addition to the erudite economic analysis and engaging historical overview, makes this an accessible work for a wide audience. The author of four previous economic books, Kotok here collaborates with Englund (chief economist for Action Economics, LLC), Erwin (a budding historian), and Sweet (a veteran copy editor in the financial industry), whose combined strengths make for an impressively interdisciplinary work backed by a myriad of scholarly footnotes (the authors are careful to moderate their analysis with dozens of full-color charts, photograph, historical art, and other visual elements found throughout the work). Englund contributes a concluding “Chart Book” that provides readers with an eye-opening visual study of Covid-19’s impact on housing, factory output, and household incomes, among other economic indicators.

A well-researched, engaging economic history of pandemics.