LEAD, FOLLOW, OR FAIL

Brews gives a historical account of the engines of economic productivity and delivers a prognosis regarding the future of American and global economies.

Prior to 1800, per the author, humanity suffered through “over 150,000 years of stumbling around,” making painfully slow progress toward overcoming the persistent problems of scarcity. This “millennia of human struggle” was followed by 250 years of breakneck economic gains so impressive that the living standards enjoyed by the American middle class in the mid-20th century were superior to what French nobility experienced at the end of the 18th century, a striking point made by Brews in this intellectually lively study. To anatomize these quantum leaps and better comprehend “the human struggle for productivity in all its dimensions,” the author employs an epochal mode of analysis that divides history into three eras: the Pre-Industrial Era (before 1800), the Industrial Era (1800–1950), and the Post-Industrial Era (beginning 1950). Each time period is personified by the author as a human type: Respectively, there are “failures,” “followers,” and “leaders.” The failures of the Pre-Industrial Era—in which, Brews asserts, there was virtually no progress—are largely attributed to a dearth of usable capital and freedom. The members of the subsequent Industrial Era solved these problems and made mass production and consumption possible, partly by shouldering the “deferred gratification and sacrifice” necessary for long-term investments. The Post-Industrial Era is characterized by innovation, its chief product the computer, which allowed for a sweeping transformation not only of economies, but also the very nature of work itself. However, cautions the author, there are still great challenges to progress, including mounting inequality and the considerable threat posed by global warming. These, though, are manageable menaces, Brews avers—the United States could use higher rates of taxation to redistribute wealth and curb consumption, though these shifts would require a “recalibration” of the nation’s social contract.

Brews’ empirically rigorous study deftly manages to combine a panoramic historical survey with a granular account of the machinations of productivity. While the subject matter is inherently complex and the text often technically formidable, his explanations are consistently accessible to even readers with limited backgrounds in economics. Predictions of any kind are always to be taken with a grain of salt, but the author presents his persuasively, without the grating push of dogmatic certainty. There is an astute political dimension to his analysis; for example, “As other nations join the post-industrial world, democracy’s dominance over other regime types may be where convergence occurs. All industrialized nations today are democracies, and no autocracy is yet fully industrialized. Time will tell if China or other autocracies will industrialize and remain nondemocratic.” Much of the writing on economics today falls into two categories: prohibitively dense academic studies or more popular works that indulge in extravagant simplifications and reductions. Brews’ book belongs to a rare third category: analysis that is serious without being indecipherable and that comments pragmatically on the hurdles that must be cleared for a bright future. This is a valuable contribution to the literature on productivity for experts and novices alike.

A thoughtful and exacting discussion of the economic future.